Home Prices Lagged Inflation in 13 of 51 Places Since Mid-2022.

If you bought a home in the spring of 2022, did it keep up with the cost of everything else? In 13 of the 51 places we checked (the 50 states and the District of Columbia) it did not. From the second quarter of 2022 to the second quarter of 2026, home prices in those 13 rose by less than consumer prices did.

The figures come from the federal home price index behind HomeSince, Veraino’s home-value site, set against the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer price index. Across the whole country, prices rose 17.3% over those four years and consumer prices rose 14.2%, a gain of 2.8% after inflation. The state numbers are where that average splits.

What the two measures are

Home prices are the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s House Price Index. The agency describes it as “a weighted, repeat-sales index, meaning that it measures average price changes” in repeat sales of the same properties. It tracks an area, not a particular house. We use the all-transactions, not-seasonally-adjusted quarterly series for each state, so every figure compares one quarter with the same quarter four years earlier.

Inflation is the BLS consumer price index for all urban consumers, defined by the bureau as “a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers” for a basket of goods and services. We used the U.S. city average, the average of April through June in each year, which gives a four-year rise of 14.2%. It is one national figure, applied to every state alike.

After inflation means the home price change divided by the inflation change. A state where prices rose 6.1% while consumer prices rose 14.2% is down 7.1% in buying power, as California is.

The 13 that fell behind

FHFA all-transactions HPI, not seasonally adjusted, 2022 Q2 to 2026 Q2; BLS CPI-U, April to June averages. Sorted by after-inflation change; all 13 areas are shown.

The District of Columbia is the only place where the index itself was lower in 2026 Q2 than in 2022 Q2 (−5.0%). Colorado rose 2.7% in nominal terms and still trails inflation by 10.1%. Florida and Minnesota are the near misses of this group, at −1.2% and −0.7% after inflation.

Where the pattern does not hold

The other 38 places kept ahead of inflation, in some cases by a lot: Connecticut rose 33.5% and ended 16.9% ahead of consumer prices, the largest margin of the 51. The 13 above are a count at one start date, and the start date matters. Measured from 2021 Q2 (a 24.0% rise in consumer prices), 3 places lagged inflation. From 2023 Q2 (9.8%), 10 did. From 2024 Q2 (6.4%), 17 did. The count is a fact about that window, not a trend line, and it says nothing about what comes next.

What this data does not tell you

• Why prices moved. The index records what prices did, not why, so we offer no cause for any state on the list.
• Your house. The index follows average price changes in an area. A home you renovated, or one on an unusual lot, can differ widely from it, and so can a particular city or ZIP code inside a state.
• Your costs. The consumer price index is one national measure of the cost of living. It does not reflect what rent, taxes or insurance did in your state, and a home is also somewhere to live, which this comparison does not value.
• Whether to buy or sell. This is a comparison of two published indexes over a past window. It is informational only, not financial advice.

How we ran the numbers

Home prices: FHFA House Price Index, traditional, all-transactions, quarterly, not seasonally adjusted, for the 50 states and the District of Columbia, plus the U.S. series, from the FHFA master file through 2026 Q2 (pulled 2026-09-28). Inflation: BLS CPI-U, all items, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted (series CUUR0000SA0), data through August 2026 (pulled 2026-09-28). Each state’s change is its 2026 Q2 index over its 2022 Q2 index; inflation is the April-to-June 2026 average over the April-to-June 2022 average (14.17%). Every one of the 51 areas has a value in both quarters, so there is no minimum sample to apply and none were dropped.

We computed the count twice, once with HomeSince’s inflation helper and once from the raw monthly CPI values with the site’s own estimate function, and both gave 13 places below inflation, 38 above and 1 with a nominal decline. The 2021, 2023 and 2024 start dates were run the same way. Queried 2026-10-12.